India A is on the verge of getting eliminated after suffering a terrible campaign in the ongoing Tri-series in Sri Lanka. The men in blue started the series with an 8-run win against Sri Lanka. But the Tilak Varma-led side lost a hat-trick of games—one against Afghanistan and two to Sri Lanka.

Recently, the Super Over loss to the hosts further eroded the Indians’ chances of qualifying for the final. However, India A is not yet eliminated from the Tri-Nation A series despite losing three games on a trot.

As Sri Lanka already secured a berth in the final, Afghanistan A and India A are now under must win situation. However, the Afghans have stronger chances of facing off against the Lankans in the grand finale.

Out of six matches in the league stages, each team gets an opportunity to play four matches before securing a spot in the final.

Let’s break down the qualification scenario of Afghanistan A and India A for the tri-series 2026 final.

India A is in a must-win situation vs Afghanistan A

The only hope left for India A is to secure a win in their last fixture against Afghanistan A on June 17, 2026 (Wednesday) to tally upto 4 points. However, a victory at the Rangiri Dambulla Stadium won’t guarantee a straightforward qualification for the Indians.

Additionally, Tilak Varma and his team should wait for Afghanistan to lose their next game against Sri Lanka on June 19, 2026 (Friday). This would ensure that the Afghans would conclude the tri-series points table with just 2 points.

Why Afghanistan A Holds Stronger Chances Than India A?

While India A is left with a solo game, Afghanistan A has a golden opportunity to secure consecutive wins in their forthcoming two matches.

In other words, Afghans should secure a win against India and Sri Lanka to deserve a straightforward qualification into the final.

Notably, Afghanistan would remain as the favorite to conclude second in the points table ahead of the final by defeating India on Wednesday (June 17).

Complicated Scenario: What if India A Loses to Afghanistan A?

India A should ensure not to lose by a huge margin to Afghanistan in its last league stage match. Additionally, the Indians should hope for the Afghans to suffer a massive loss to the Sri Lankans.

This is the only scenario left for India to progress into the final if they face defeat to Afghanistan, adding complications to their qualification chances as both teams would conclude with 2 points.

Moreover, the net-run-rate (NRR) would play a crucial role in determining both teams’ fate, as India’s superior NRR of +0.330 compared to Afghanistan’s -1.392 NRR could enhance their qualification chances.

Tri-Nation A Series 2026 Points Table

Here is how the points table has been updated as of June 16, 2026, following Sri Lanka’s recent super over victory against India in the Tri Series A 2026:

3 Areas India Must Work to Avoid Tri Series A Elimination

As the forthcoming match against Afghanistan holds great significance for India, here are the three weaknesses that the team should overcome to avoid elimination:

1. Bowling Attack

Indian bowlers should focus on delivering accurate yorkers to restrict their opponent team from accumulating enough runs on the board. Most importantly, they lacked the wicket-taking abilities that proved costly in suffering three consecutive defeats in the ongoing season.

2. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi’s Form

On bowling-friendly pitches in Sri Lanka, Vaibhav Sooryavanshi’s struggle to score huge runs has clearly been evident. Perhaps the flat pitches in India turned out to be favorable for the young opener to dominate against the world-class bowlers.

Particularly in a 50-over format game, Sooryavanshi should adopt a cautious start in the powerplay rather than attempting too many aggressive strokes at the early phases of an inning.

Mainly, the southpaw should ensure his long stay at the crease to gain exposure against the toughest opponents on an international pitch.

3. Making Use of Batting Depth

There is no doubt about the immense level of batting depth that India A boasts in this tri-series. However, the lower order has fired up and accumulated maximum runs compared to the top and middle order.

So, it becomes important for the opening batters, Prabhsimran Singh and Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, to build a consistent opening partnership to either compile mammoth totals on the board or chase challenging totals conveniently.